# prove_ma_enrollment_trend

Prove MA Enrollment Trend · v0.1.0 · medicare

Execute a bounded MA enrollment-trend proof. Returns the answer value plus a receipt with substrate, source snapshots, filters, guardrails, caveats, input hash, response hash, and replay pointer. Reads three silver tables (CPSC county, monthly-enrollment-plan, plan-crosswalks) at their published snapshots.

**Inputs.**
- `parent_org` (required): 
- `year_range_start` (required): 
- `year_range_end` (required): 
- `states`: 
- `plan_types`: 
- `snp_types`: 
- `acknowledge_era_break`: Retained for backward compat. The pre/post-2018 grain pivot was empirically falsified 2026-05-11; no era break is enforced. See docs/research/2026-05-11-cpsc-verification-ledger.md.
- `max_contributing_rows`: 

**A real answer** (customer seat, 4.48 s, args `{"parent_org":"Humana Inc.","year_range_start":2024,"year_range_end":2024,"states":["FL"]}`):

```json
{
 "value": {
  "proof_kind": "ma_enrollment_trend",
  "parent_org_query": "Humana Inc.",
  "parent_org_canonical": "Humana Inc.",
  "year_range": [
   2024,
   2024
  ],
  "enrollment_count_months_point": 12402836,
  "enrollment_count_months_lower": 12402836,
  "enrollment_count_months_upper": 13236536,
  "suppressed_cell_count": 83370,
  "contributing_row_count": 99615,
  "per_month_count": 12,
  "row_count": 99615,
  "status": "ok",
  "verdict": "ok"
 },
 "unit": "enrollment_count_months",
 "vintage": "2024-2024",
 "source": {
  "dataset": "MA / Part D monthly enrollment reports (contract, plan, CPSC county, penetration, SNP, service area)",
  "publisher": "cms",
  "catalog_updated_at": "2026-05-13"
 },
 "caveats": [],
 "response_hash": "4b564c9644d93ce3f133fdc9079aa8b5081eaa3fe5225a0fff7704fe4c73dffe",
 "semantic_version": 1,
 "tool_version": "prove_ma_enrollment_trend@0.1.0",
 "explanation": null,
 "status": "complete",
 "proof_id": "maenrolltrendproof_b3116de04f64d91d",
 "receipt": {
  "receipt_version": "ma_enrollment_trend_receipt.v0",
  "proof_id": "maenrolltrendproof_b3116de04f64d91d",
  "substrate": "medicare_advantage",
  "proof_kind": "ma_enrollment_trend",
  "tool_name": "prove_ma_enrollment_trend",
  "tool_version": "0.1.0",
  "source_descriptor": {
   "tables": [
    "medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_county",
    "medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_plan",
    "medicare_silver.monthly_contract_enrollment_summary",
    "medicare_silver.plan_crosswalks_annual"
   ],
   "primary_table": "medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_plan",
   "geography_table": "medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_county",
   "lineage_table": "medicare_silver.plan_crosswalks_annual"
  },
  "read_snapshot_set": {
   "medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_county": "3859245805449167937",
   "medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_plan": "635122163549307464",
   "medicare_silver.plan_crosswalks_annual": "4686686039624534381",
   "medicare_silver.monthly_contract_enrollment_summary": "1413691709052438763"
  },
  "filters": {
   "parent_org": "Humana Inc.",
   "year_range_start": 2024,
   "year_range_end": 2024,
   "states": [
    "FL"
   ],
   "acknowledge_era_break": false
  },
  "guardrails": {
   "ma_vs_pdp_scope": "ma_only_or_explicit_pdp_inclusion",
   "suppression_bounds_applied": "lower_upper_bounds_required_on_suppressed_cells",
   "lineage_snapshot_required": "plan_crosswalks_snapshot_pinned",
   "published_snapshot_required": "silver_published_tag_resolved",
   "county_native_key_required": "cpsc_county_ssa_non_null",
   "no_unbounded_current_head_reads": "all_reads_use_pinned_snapshot"
  },
  "known_gap_status": {
   "cpsc_small_cell_suppression": {
    "registry_status": "active",
    "active": true,
    "gating_type": "suppressed_below_threshold",
    "resolved_at": null
   },
   "cpsc_2011_04_broomfield_duplicate_native_keys": {
    "registry_status": "resolved",
    "active": false,
    "gating_type": "parser_strategy_required",
    "resolved_at": null
   },
   "cpsc_2008_bareform_columns": {
    "registry_status": "resolved",
    "active": false,
    "gating_type": "parser_strategy_required",
    "resolved_at": null
   },
   "enrollment_grain_pre_2018": {
    "registry_status": "falsified",
    "active": false,
    "gating_type": "disabled",
    "resolved_at": null
   },
   "cpsc_2016_12_publication_gap": {
    "registry_status": "resolved",
    "active": false,
    "gating_type": "disabled",
    "resolved_at": "2026-05-11"
   },
   "cpsc_2021_06_wrong_file_uploaded": {
    "registry_status": "resolved",
    "active": false,
    "gating_type": "disabled",
    "resolved_at": "2026-05-11"
   },
   "cpsc_2025_03_wrong_file_uploaded": {
    "registry_status": "resolved",
    "active": false,
    "gating_type": "disabled",
    "resolved_at": "2026-05-11"
   }
  },
  "plan_or_query_evidence": {
   "max_contributing_rows": 5000000,
   "evidence_kind": "stub_pending_silver_planner"
  },
  "row_count": 99615,
  "status": "ok",
  "caveats": [
   "lineage_via_plan_crosswalks_when_crossing_plan_year_boundary",
   "ma_enrollment_only_not_ffs",
   "suppression_bounds_required_for_county_rollups",
   "suppression_warning_present"
  ],
  "input_hash": "b3116de04f64d91db3f2cb28ded3ba9e03e0571ee9da7e913f0e208a9a8171bc",
  "response_hash": "4b564c9644d93ce3f133fdc9079aa8b5081eaa3fe5225a0fff7704fe4c73dffe",
  "replay_pointer": {
   "tool": "prove_ma_enrollment_trend",
   "inputs": {
    "parent_org": "Humana Inc.",
    "year_range_start": 2024,
    "year_range_end": 2024,
    "states": [
     "FL"
    ],
    "acknowledge_era_break": false,
    "max_contributing_rows": 5000000
   },
   "receipt_id": "maerp_4b564c9644d93ce3f133fdc9",
   "athena_query_id_first_run": "cfc88f9b-b142-4302-abc1-9913c18e9273"
  },
  "receipt_id": "maerp_4b564c9644d93ce3f133fdc9"
 },
 "audience": "customer",
 "answer": {
  "value_ref": "value",
  "unit": "enrollment_count_months",
  "scope": {
   "tool": "prove_ma_enrollment_trend",
   "filters": {
    "parent_org": "Humana Inc.",
    "year_range_start": 2024,
    "year_range_end": 2024,
    "acknowledge_era_break": false,
    "max_contributing_rows": 5000000
   }
  }
 },
 "method": "Computed over the filters shown in this answer's scope, from the sources listed in its evidence. Nothing outside those filters was included. You did not specify acknowledge_era_break; no was used. You did not specify max_contributing_rows; 5000000 was used.",
 "evidence": {
  "sources": [
   {
    "dataset": "MA / Part D monthly enrollment reports (contract, plan, CPSC county, penetration, SNP, service area)",
    "publisher": "cms",
    "catalog_updated_at": "2026-05-13"
   }
  ],
  "response_hash": "4b564c9644d93ce3f133fdc9079aa8b5081eaa3fe5225a0fff7704fe4c73dffe"
 },
 "defaults_applied": [
  {
   "param": "acknowledge_era_break",
   "used": false,
   "reason": "Retained for backward compat"
  },
  {
   "param": "max_contributing_rows",
   "used": 5000000,
   "reason": "tool default"
  }
 ]
}
```

REST: `POST https://api.vladahealth.com/v1/tools/prove_ma_enrollment_trend` with the inputs as the JSON body. MCP: the tool by name.