2.9 million UnitedHealth members are in 4-star contracts that cleared the line by less than 0.1

UnitedHealth said this morning that at least 69% of its Medicare Advantage members are in plans rated 4 stars or more for 2027, in line with expectations.

The number to watch is how close those members sit to the line.

Of the 6.25 million UnitedHealth members in 4-star-or-better contracts, 2.9 million are in five contracts that cleared 4 stars by less than a tenth of a point. Its largest Medicare Advantage contract, H2001 (2.25 million members), cleared 4.5 by 0.015.

The closest is H0609, UnitedHealthcare Benefits of Texas, 752,808 members. It fell from 4.5 to 4.0. Before rounding it scored 3.771; CMS rounds 3.75 up to 4.0. It kept 4.0 only because a CMS rule set aside its two improvement measures. Several of its measures sit exactly on their cut points, and one star lower on any measure that counts double or triple in its Overall score drops the contract to 3.5. The heaviest: Controlling High Blood Pressure, 90 against a 5-star cut of 90.

Our Star Risk model, tested on years it never saw, puts the chance H0609 ends below 4 stars next year at about 56%.

These ratings set the 2028 bonus payments. I read every contract measure by measure. DM me a contract number and I'll send you what moved it.