Vlada · Research · 2026-10-21 · observed
Elevance lost 353,000 regular Medicare Advantage members in a year. Its dual plans held.
Elevance told investors on 10/21/2026 that its 2027 Medicare Advantage push is HMO plans and members with both Medicare and Medicaid. Do its CMS filings show that turn, dual against non-dual, 2025 to 2027?
| Elevance Health (Anthem) Medicare Advantage | members / plans / % / $ a month |
|---|---|
| Regular plans, membersSep 2025 to Sep 2026 | -352,599 |
| Dual plans (D-SNP), membersSep 2025 to Sep 2026 | -12,590 |
| Chronic-condition plans (C-SNP), membersSep 2025 to Sep 2026 | 15,281 |
Elevance individual Medicare Advantage members, September, plans 001-799 matched to that year's CMS Landscape (group plans excluded, so the total is below the 1.898 million Elevance reports). Regular (non-SNP HMO + PPO): 1,111,911 (Sep 2025: HMO 967,799, PPO 144,112) to 759,312 (Sep 2026: HMO 681,083, PPO 78,229), down 352,599 or 32%, about 353,000. Dual (D-SNP HMO + PPO): 595,387 (575,140 + 20,247) to 582,797 (571,568 + 11,229), down 12,590 or 2% (2.1%). Chronic-condition (C-SNP HMO + PPO): 140,077 (139,069 + 1,008) to 155,358 (154,292 + 1,066), up 15,281 or 11% (10.9%). Institutional (I-SNP): 3,098 to 2,209. Non-dual (regular + C-SNP + I-SNP): 1,255,086 to 916,879, down 27%. Total: 1,850,473 to 1,499,676, down 350,797. Dual share of Elevance members: 32% (32.2%) in Sep 2025, 39% (38.9%) in Sep 2026. Sep 2026 dual share elsewhere: UnitedHealth 30% (29.6%: 2,259,687 of 7,622,444), CVS (Aetna) 17% (17.3%: 484,266 of 2,792,767), Humana 15% (14.8%: 948,601 of 6,395,882), all Medicare Advantage 22% (21.5%: 6,422,785 of 29,855,373). Special-needs share (D/C/I-SNP) of Elevance members: 40% to 49%. 2027 plan list (CMS Landscape, distinct contract-plan, individual plans): dual plans 93 (2025), 103 (2026), 72 (2027), in 1,361, 1,453 and 1,446 counties (22 states in 2026 and 2027); regular plans 197, 155, 137 in 1,168, 1,030 and 974 counties; C-SNP plans 62, 57, 52 in 601, 600 and 616 counties. Members whose plan ends for 2027 (September 2026 members, CMS 2027 crosswalk: terminated or stranded by a service-area cut): regular 44,360 of 759,312 (5.8%); C-SNP 5,083 of 155,358 (3.3%); dual 12,141 of 582,797 (2.1%). A further 104,638 dual members are moved by Elevance into a merged or split plan (crosswalk moved 25,685 + split 78,953). Plan Value (Vlada model, build plan_value_v19e, dollars per member per month, the same September 2026 members in their 2027 plans): dual HMO $162 to $175 (+$13; full-dual value, Medicaid pays the cost sharing; as filed $236 to $260); C-SNP HMO $457 to $473 (+$16); regular HMO $173 to $167 (-$6, written 6); regular PPO $105 to $93 (-$12, written 12; 84% of PPO members valued). Earnings call 10/21/2026: Gail Boudreaux said the 2027 enrollment period puts the emphasis on HMO plans and dual-eligible members; Elevance reported 1,898,000 Medicare Advantage members, down 15.5% from 2,245,000. · CMS Medicare Advantage Landscape files 2025-2027, CMS monthly enrollment by contract, plan and county (September 2025 and 2026), CMS 2027 plan crosswalk; Vlada Plan Value (model, build v19e); Elevance Q3 2026 earnings release and call, 10/21/2026. Vlada analysis. · 3 rows
The posted figure
Read with
- Individual plans only (plan IDs 001-799). Elevance's reported 1.898 million includes employer group plans, which are not here.
- Members are September counts matched to that year's CMS plan list by plan and county; cells under 11 members are suppressed by CMS, so every count is a floor.
- Parent is CMS's reported parent organization each September (ELEVANCE HEALTH, INC.).
- Dual = D-SNP (HMO and PPO). Non-dual = regular plans plus chronic-condition (C-SNP) and institutional (I-SNP) plans. Some dual-eligible people are in regular plans; this counts plans, not people's Medicaid status.
- Plan ends = the CMS crosswalk marks the plan terminated or the member's county cut from it. Members the insurer moves into another plan (merged or split) keep coverage and are not counted.
- Plan Value is a model, not a filed amount. Product types are never pooled: the dual figure is the value to a full dual (Medicaid already pays the Medicare cost sharing), the others are all-in, so compare each row's change, not levels across rows. D-SNP PPO (11,229 members, 31% valued in 2026) and C-SNP PPO (1,066) are not shown.
- Plan counts are distinct contract-plan IDs; a plan sold in more counties counts once.
- We did not attribute Elevance's financial results to these moves; the call is quoted only for what management said about 2027.
- Of the 12,141 dual members whose plan ends, 9,701 (80%) were in dual PPO plans Elevance ended (3 of 5); dual HMO plans were merged or split. The 2.1% counts 13 dual HMO plans that are partly ended and partly consolidated (about 84,000 members) as split, per the CMS crosswalk.
- Plan Value 2027 covers the September 2026 members followed into a 2027 plan (e.g. 638,816 of 681,257 regular HMO members); regular PPO is valued for 84% of members (Regional PPO not valued).
- The call is quoted from third-party transcripts (Investing.com, Benzinga), not the official replay.
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