Vlada · Research · 2026-10-05 · measured_from_estate
CMS released the 2027 Medicare Advantage crosswalk file: 3.15 million lose their plan, 2.12 million are moved to another plan.
Of the Medicare Advantage members whose plan is not offered in their county in 2027, how many does the CMS 2027 plan crosswalk move into another plan, and how many lose their plan, by product type?
| Medicare Advantage individual plans, plan year 2027, the CMS crosswalk | Value |
|---|---|
| Lose their plan | 3.15 |
| Moved by their insurer | 2.12 |
September 2026 CMS enrollment, individual MA plans (H/R contracts, plans 001-799, excl. Cost and MMP), matched to the CMS 2026 and 2027 Landscape files by contract, plan, state and county (the Day-One base: 29.86M members, 5.27M in a plan not offered in their county in 2027). Of those, moved = CMS's 2027 crosswalk moves them into a plan offered in their county (renewal under a new id, consolidation, or split); lose their plan = terminated, or the plan stopped serving their county and no successor is offered there. Product types are the fixed buckets: HMO and PPO = non-SNP; D-SNP HMO and D-SNP PPO separately. · CMS Plan Crosswalk 2027 (plan-crosswalk-2027.zip, posted 2026-10-05, sha256 55a392af...1329), CMS Medicare Advantage Landscape CY2026 and CY2027, CMS Monthly Enrollment by Contract/Plan/State/County September 2026; served medicare_semantic.fact_landscape_disposition_v1 (0 differences against docs/knowledge/ma/landscape-day/2026-2027/landscape-analysis-2026-2027-*.csv, Decipher #3143); 2009-2026 series docs/knowledge/ma/landscape-day/2026-2027/EXITS-HISTORY.md. · 2 rows
The posted figure
Read with
- Individual plans only; employer group plans (plan IDs 800 and up) are not in the CMS plan files.
- Suppressed enrollment cells (under 11 members) count as 0.
- The Day-One base excludes about 22K members enrolled in counties their plan did not list and 79K in plans outside the Landscape; on the all-H/R-contracts base of the 2009-2026 series the 2027 figure is 3,182,581 (10.6%). Either base exceeds every earlier year in members (2026: 2,965,064); as a share, 2011 (12.0%) was higher.
- The September estimate (about 3 million) was the learned model B4 on the all-contracts base: 2,957,946 vs 3,182,581 measured.
- The crosswalk says where members go, not why an insurer moved or did not move them; the post names no motive.
- D-SNP HMO and D-SNP PPO differ: 85% vs 35% of departing members moved; the post quotes the HMO bucket by name.
- Losing a plan does not mean losing Medicare; members choose another plan or Original Medicare in open enrollment. A plan that leaves a county must notify its members at least 90 days before January 1 (by October 2), so the letters should already be out.
- Validated 2026-10-05: an independent recompute from the source tables (September 2026 enrollment, the 2026 and 2027 Landscape, the 2027 crosswalk; not landscape_analysis.py) matches every figure in this drop to the member, nationally and in all four columns; the raw CMS zip re-counts to 9,144 rows with the same seven status counts.
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