Vlada · Research · 2026-09-28 · measured_from_estate
The 2027 Landscape file: about 3 million lose their plan again.
How many Medicare Advantage members lost their plan each year, 2009 to 2027?
| Medicare Advantage members who lost their plan | Value |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 |
| 2026 | 3 |
| 2027 (estimate) | 3 |
Members in September of year Y in an individual MA plan (H/R contracts, plans 001-799) whose plan was not offered in their county in Y+1 and who were not crosswalked into a plan offered there (stranded + terminated), from the CMS plan crosswalk, September enrollment and Landscape files (plan exits ledger, tools/ma_brain/plan_exits_ledger.py). 2027: learned model B4 on the same basis before the crosswalk (tools/ma_brain/landscape_exit_estimate.py). · CMS Plan Crosswalks 2009-2026, CMS Monthly Enrollment by Contract/Plan/State/County (September), CMS Medicare Advantage Landscape files; docs/knowledge/ma/plan-exits-ledger-ma-2026-09-08.md; docs/knowledge/ma/landscape-day/2026-2027/exit-estimate-2026-2027.md. · 3 rows
The posted figure
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- 2027 is an estimate until CMS posts the 2027 crosswalk in early October; range from past years 1.50M to 3.84M.
- As a share of members, 2011 (12.0%) and 2010 (10.6%) were higher than 2026 (10.1%); the record is in members, not share.
- Individual plans only; employer group plans are not in the CMS plan list.
- Suppressed enrollment cells (under 11) count as 0.
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