Vlada · Research · 2026-10-02 · inferred
Insurers project Medicare Advantage will shrink in 2027. CMS says they guess low. It has a point.
Will Medicare Advantage grow in 2027, given insurers project 34 million and CMS says actual enrollment will be higher?
| Medicare Advantage enrollment, change each year | Value |
|---|---|
| 200911.21M in MA, 24.4% of people with Medicare | 1.07 |
| 201011.83M in MA, 25.1% of people with Medicare | 0.62 |
| 201112.49M in MA, 25.8% of people with Medicare | 0.66 |
| 201213.71M in MA, 27.2% of people with Medicare | 1.23 |
| 201314.98M in MA, 28.8% of people with Medicare | 1.26 |
| 201416.45M in MA, 30.7% of people with Medicare | 1.47 |
| 201517.65M in MA, 32.1% of people with Medicare | 1.2 |
| 201618.51M in MA, 32.5% of people with Medicare | 0.87 |
| 201719.96M in MA, 34.5% of people with Medicare | 1.44 |
| 201821.50M in MA, 36.2% of people with Medicare | 1.54 |
| 201923.14M in MA, 38.0% of people with Medicare | 1.64 |
| 202025.29M in MA, 40.7% of people with Medicare | 2.15 |
| 202127.82M in MA, 43.9% of people with Medicare | 2.53 |
| 202230.09M in MA, 46.6% of people with Medicare | 2.27 |
| 202332.42M in MA, 49.2% of people with Medicare | 2.33 |
| 202434.36M in MA, 51.0% of people with Medicare | 1.94 |
| 202535.61M in MA, 51.7% of people with Medicare | 1.24 |
| 202636.31M in MA, 51.6% of people with Medicare | 0.71 |
| 2027insurers' projection, CMS release Sept 28, 2026 | -2.31 |
Medicare Advantage enrollment each September from the CMS state-county penetration file (all MA contracts, employer plans included), and the enrollment projections CMS publishes each September from insurers' bids. · CMS MA State/County Penetration files 2008-2026; CMS press releases 2023-2026 (plan-projected enrollment); CMS 2027 Landscape file for plans per county and members losing their plan. · 19 rows
The posted figure
Read with
- The 2027 losing-their-plan figure is our estimate from the Landscape file before the crosswalk.
- Whether MA grows in 2027 is not measured until the January to March 2027 enrollment files; this post compares claims against history, it does not forecast a number.
- Connecticut and Alaska are missing from CMS's penetration file for recent months; their members are filled from CMS's county enrollment file, scaled to the penetration file.
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