Vlada · Research · 2026-10-05 · measured_from_estate
Before 2025, no insurer dropped more than 300,000 Medicare Advantage members in a year. Since then, three have done it eight times.
For the largest Medicare Advantage insurers, how many members lost their plan, and how many were moved into another plan, each plan year from 2009 to 2027?
| Medicare Advantage members whose plan left their county, by insurer and plan year | Value |
|---|---|
| Humana 2027 lost | 604,786 |
| UnitedHealth 2026 lost | 611,091 |
| CVS Health 2025 lost | 514,577 |
Members in September of year Y in an individual Medicare Advantage plan (plan IDs 001-799, Cost plans excluded) whose plan was not offered in their county in plan year Y+1, split by the CMS plan crosswalk: moved = crosswalked into a plan offered in their county; lost = stranded by a service-area reduction or terminated. Insurer = parent organization in CMS enrollment mapped through medicare_semantic.dim_parent_alias_v1 as of September of Y (acquired companies counted from the takeover date). Plan years 2009-2026 from the plan exits ledger cells (s3 medicare/ma_brain/exit_history); 2027 from medicare_semantic.fact_landscape_disposition_v1 on the same every-member basis. · CMS Plan Crosswalks 2009-2027, CMS Medicare Advantage Landscape files, CMS Monthly Enrollment by Contract/Plan/State/County (September); tools/ma_brain/payer_exits_figure.py; payer_series.csv and buckets_2027.csv beside this file. · 3 rows
The posted figure
Read with
- Individual plans only; employer group plans (plan IDs 800 and up) and Cost plans are excluded every year (Cost plans removed: 373K members in plan year 2019, the Minnesota cost-plan wind-down).
- The crosswalk says where members went, not why an insurer moved or dropped them; the post names no motive.
- Validated 2026-10-05: plan years 2025 and 2026 for CVS, Humana and UnitedHealth equal the served fact_landscape_disposition_v1 to the member; national 2027 ties to get_landscape_exits (3,175,312 lost, 2,116,300 moved); national lost 2009-2026 ties to EXITS-HISTORY.md before the Cost exclusion.
- 2027 here counts every member cell (22K more than the Day-One base of the previous post, which showed 3.15M nationally).
- Suppressed enrollment cells (under 11 members) count as 0.
- Losing a plan does not mean losing Medicare; plans leaving a county must notify members by October 2.
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