Vlada · Research · 2026-10-18 · observed
C-SNP plans had 430,000 members at the end of 2022. By October 2026 they had 1.86 million.
How fast have Medicare Advantage plans for chronic conditions (C-SNPs) grown, where, who carries it, and what changes for 2027?
| C-SNP | C-SNP members, United States |
|---|---|
| 2019December 2019 | 370,405 |
| 2020December 2020 | 394,979 |
| 2021December 2021 | 414,228 |
| 2022December 2022 | 429,656 |
| 2023December 2023 | 548,900 |
| 2024December 2024 | 881,541 |
| 2025December 2025 | 1,438,347 |
| 2026October 2026 | 1,860,564 |
Members: every plan segment typed 'Chronic or Disabling Condition' in the CMS SNP comprehensive report, summed each month (national). Map: the same plans matched by contract and plan to CMS monthly enrollment by county, per 1,000 people eligible for Medicare (CMS county penetration file), three-month average. 2027: C-SNP plans on sale (CMS plan files for 2026 and 2027, individual plans), and counties where the count of C-SNP plans on sale rises. · CMS SNP comprehensive report, June 2008 to October 2026; CMS monthly Medicare Advantage enrollment by contract, plan and county; CMS state/county penetration file; CMS Medicare Advantage Landscape files 2008 to 2027; CMS plan service-area files 2026 and 2027. Vlada analysis. · 8 rows
The posted figure
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- Members are counted, not modeled; nothing here forecasts 2027 enrollment. The 2027 numbers are plans on sale and counties, not members.
- County counts under 11 are hidden by CMS, so county sums run about 1% under the national total since 2014 and 2% to 5% under it from 2008 to 2013; the map is per 1,000 eligibles with a three-month average, so a county near the line does not flicker.
- Connecticut's county eligibles are carried forward from its last month on file (CMS dropped them from August 2024); Puerto Rico gaps are carried the same way.
- Insurer growth uses the parent organization CMS lists on each contract in December 2022 and October 2026; 'added' is net growth, not new sales.
- This says what grew and where, not why; it does not judge whether a C-SNP is a better plan for anyone.
- 2027 counties: C-SNP plans on sale per county in the CMS landscape files (individual plans, regional PPOs included), county names matched to FIPS; 2,416 counties had a C-SNP on sale for 2026 and 2,518 for 2027. A plan sold in part of a county counts for the county.
- People with a qualifying chronic condition can join a C-SNP at any time of year (a CMS special enrollment period), so December 7 is the deadline for open enrollment, not the only chance.
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