Elevance lost 353,000 regular Medicare Advantage members in a year. Its dual plans held.

Vlada

2026-10-21 · on LinkedIn ↗

Elevance lost 352,599 regular Medicare Advantage members in a year. Its dual plans lost 2%.

Elevance reported this morning. On the call, CEO Gail Boudreaux said its 2027 Medicare Advantage approach puts the emphasis on HMO plans and members who have both Medicare and Medicaid. We checked its CMS filings. The turn is already made.

Elevance's individual Medicare Advantage plans, September 2025 to September 2026: Regular plans: 1,111,911 members to 759,312. Dual plans (D-SNP): 595,387 to 582,797. Chronic-condition plans (C-SNP): 140,077 to 155,358. Up 11%.

39% of Elevance's members are now in a dual plan, up from 32%. UnitedHealthcare is at 30%, CVS (Aetna) 17%, Humana 15%.

And the 2027 plan list: Dual plans cut from 103 to 72, but sold in nearly the same counties, 1,453 to 1,446. The HMOs were merged, not pulled; only the small dual PPO line was pulled. 2.1% of dual members lose their plan for 2027. In regular plans it is 5.8%. Our Plan Value model (modeled, same members) has dual HMO members gaining $13 a month in benefits. Regular HMO members lose $6, PPO members $12.

One insurer, two directions.

Make your own version in StudioThe numbers behind it

Source: CMS Medicare Advantage Landscape files 2025-2027, CMS monthly enrollment by contract, plan and county (September 2025 and 2026), CMS 2027 plan crosswalk; Vlada Plan Value (model, build v19e); Elevance Q3 2026 earnings release and call, 10/21/2026. Vlada analysis.
Measure: Elevance individual Medicare Advantage members, September, plans 001-799 matched to that year's CMS Landscape (group plans excluded, so the total is below the 1.898 million Elevance reports). Regular (non-SNP HMO + PPO): 1,111,911 (Sep 2025: HMO 967,799, PPO 144,112) to 759,312 (Sep 2026: HMO 681,083, PPO 78,229), down 352,599 or 32%, about 353,000. Dual (D-SNP HMO + PPO): 595,387 (575,140 + 20,247) to 582,797 (571,568 + 11,229), down 12,590 or 2% (2.1%). Chronic-condition (C-SNP HMO + PPO): 140,077 (139,069 + 1,008) to 155,358 (154,292 + 1,066), up 15,281 or 11% (10.9%). Institutional (I-SNP): 3,098 to 2,209. Non-dual (regular + C-SNP + I-SNP): 1,255,086 to 916,879, down 27%. Total: 1,850,473 to 1,499,676, down 350,797. Dual share of Elevance members: 32% (32.2%) in Sep 2025, 39% (38.9%) in Sep 2026. Sep 2026 dual share elsewhere: UnitedHealth 30% (29.6%: 2,259,687 of 7,622,444), CVS (Aetna) 17% (17.3%: 484,266 of 2,792,767), Humana 15% (14.8%: 948,601 of 6,395,882), all Medicare Advantage 22% (21.5%: 6,422,785 of 29,855,373). Special-needs share (D/C/I-SNP) of Elevance members: 40% to 49%. 2027 plan list (CMS Landscape, distinct contract-plan, individual plans): dual plans 93 (2025), 103 (2026), 72 (2027), in 1,361, 1,453 and 1,446 counties (22 states in 2026 and 2027); regular plans 197, 155, 137 in 1,168, 1,030 and 974 counties; C-SNP plans 62, 57, 52 in 601, 600 and 616 counties. Members whose plan ends for 2027 (September 2026 members, CMS 2027 crosswalk: terminated or stranded by a service-area cut): regular 44,360 of 759,312 (5.8%); C-SNP 5,083 of 155,358 (3.3%); dual 12,141 of 582,797 (2.1%). A further 104,638 dual members are moved by Elevance into a merged or split plan (crosswalk moved 25,685 + split 78,953). Plan Value (Vlada model, build plan_value_v19e, dollars per member per month, the same September 2026 members in their 2027 plans): dual HMO $162 to $175 (+$13; full-dual value, Medicaid pays the cost sharing; as filed $236 to $260); C-SNP HMO $457 to $473 (+$16); regular HMO $173 to $167 (-$6, written 6); regular PPO $105 to $93 (-$12, written 12; 84% of PPO members valued). Earnings call 10/21/2026: Gail Boudreaux said the 2027 enrollment period puts the emphasis on HMO plans and dual-eligible members; Elevance reported 1,898,000 Medicare Advantage members, down 15.5% from 2,245,000.