The 2027 Landscape file: about 3 million lose their plan again.

CMS released the 2027 Medicare Advantage Landscape file this week. We used it to estimate how many people lose their plan in 2027: about 3.0 million.

Before 2025, no year topped 1.1 million. From 2012 to 2024 it averaged 389,000 a year. Then 2.0 million lost their plan for 2025, and 3.0 million for 2026. The 2027 file says it happens again.

Losing your plan means it is not offered in your county next year, and your insurer does not move you into another one. You get a letter in the fall and have to choose something new.

If you or a parent is in Medicare Advantage, this is no longer rare. It was about one member in ten for 2026, and the 2027 file points to the same. PPO members have it worst: 15.6% of them lost their plan for 2026.

How we got 2027 on the day the file came out: CMS publishes where members actually went every year. We learned from 18 years of it which situations end in a lost plan, then ran the new 2027 file through it. CMS confirms the real number in October.

The 2027 file is live in our MCP, so you can check any plan or county yourself: vladahealth.com/data-access