prove_ma_enrollment_trend

Prove MA Enrollment Trend

What it answers

Execute a bounded MA enrollment-trend proof. Returns the answer value plus a receipt with substrate, source snapshots, filters, guardrails, caveats, input hash, response hash, and replay pointer. Reads three silver tables (CPSC county, monthly-enrollment-plan, plan-crosswalks) at their published snapshots.

Inputs

parent_org

string · required

year_range_end

integer · required

year_range_start

integer · required

acknowledge_era_break

boolean · optional

Retained for backward compat. The pre/post-2018 grain pivot was empirically falsified 2026-05-11; no era break is enforced. See docs/research/2026-05-11-cpsc-verification-ledger.md.

default: false

max_contributing_rows

integer · optional

default: 5000000

plan_types

any · optional

default: null

snp_types

any · optional

default: null

states

any · optional

default: null

Call it

From an agent: connect the Vlada MCP once (one click for Claude, ChatGPT, Cursor, VS Code) and ask in plain English; the agent selects prove_ma_enrollment_trend when the question fits. From code: the same tool over REST with an API key. The schema endpoint needs no key.

curl -X POST https://api.vladahealth.com/v1/tools/prove_ma_enrollment_trend \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $VLADA_API_KEY" \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"parent_org":"<parent_org>","year_range_end":2026,"year_range_start":2026}'

curl https://api.vladahealth.com/v1/tools/prove_ma_enrollment_trend/schema      # the JSON schema, no auth
# MCP endpoint (Streamable HTTP): https://mcp.vladahealth.com/mcp

What comes back

Typed rows plus provenance on every answer: the public source file, its vintage, the methodology, and a response_hash you can replay. This tool returns or replays an auditable receipt: the exact query, the source rows, and the hash, so a number can be reproduced later. A number the data cannot support comes back as “not in the data”, never as zero.

Output schema

{
 "$defs": {
  "Quality": {
   "description": "Row-level quality signal. All flags precomputed at build time\n(stored on the gold mart) and passed through here.",
   "properties": {
    "is_outlier": {
     "default": false,
     "title": "Is Outlier",
     "type": "boolean"
    },
    "is_ghost_candidate": {
     "default": false,
     "title": "Is Ghost Candidate",
     "type": "boolean"
    },
    "n_similar_rates": {
     "default": 0,
     "title": "N Similar Rates",
     "type": "integer"
    },
    "confidence": {
     "default": 1,
     "title": "Confidence",
     "type": "number"
    }
   },
   "title": "Quality",
   "type": "object"
  },
  "Source": {
   "description": "Cell-level provenance. Every served value traces back here.\n\n`snapshot_id` is the Iceberg snapshot the tool read from. Two calls\nat the same snapshot MUST produce byte-identical responses —\nthat's the content-addressed caching guarantee.",
   "properties": {
    "table": {
     "title": "Table",
     "type": "string"
    },
    "rate_id": {
     "anyOf": [
      {
       "type": "string"
      },
      {
       "type": "null"
      }
     ],
     "default": null,
     "title": "Rate Id"
    },
    "source_files": {
     "items": {
      "type": "string"
     },
     "title": "Source Files",
     "type": "array"
    },
    "snapshot_id": {
     "anyOf": [
      {
       "type": "integer"
      },
      {
       "type": "null"
      }
     ],
     "default": null,
     "title": "Snapshot Id"
    }
   },
   "required": [
    "table"
   ],
   "title": "Source",
   "type": "object"
  }
 },
 "properties": {
  "value": {
   "default": null,
   "title": "Value"
  },
  "unit": {
   "anyOf": [
    {
     "type": "string"
    },
    {
     "type": "null"
    }
   ],
   "default": null,
   "title": "Unit"
  },
  "vintage": {
   "anyOf": [
    {
     "type": "string"
    },
    {
     "type": "null"
    }
   ],
   "default": null,
   "title": "Vintage"
  },
  "source": {
   "$ref": "#/$defs/Source"
  },
  "methodology": {
   "anyOf": [
    {
     "type": "string"
    },
    {
     "type": "null"
    }
   ],
   "default": null,
   "title": "Methodology"
  },
  "quality": {
   "$ref": "#/$defs/Quality"
  },
  "invariants_applied": {
   "items": {
    "type": "string"
   },
   "title": "Invariants Applied",
   "type": "array"
  },
  "caveats": {
   "items": {
    "type": "string"
   },
   "title": "Caveats",
   "type": "array"
  },
  "response_hash": {
   "default": "",
   "title": "Response Hash",
   "type": "string"
  },
  "semantic_version": {
   "default": 1,
   "title": "Semantic Version",
   "type": "integer"
  },
  "tool_version": {
   "default": "unknown",
   "title": "Tool Version",
   "type": "string"
  },
  "explanation": {
   "anyOf": [
    {
     "type": "string"
    },
    {
     "type": "null"
    }
   ],
   "default": null,
   "title": "Explanation"
  },
  "status": {
   "default": "ok",
   "enum": [
    "planned",
    "ok",
    "no_match",
    "rejected_guardrail"
   ],
   "title": "Status",
   "type": "string"
  },
  "refusal": {
   "anyOf": [
    {
     "additionalProperties": true,
     "type": "object"
    },
    {
     "type": "null"
    }
   ],
   "default": null,
   "title": "Refusal"
  },
  "failure": {
   "anyOf": [
    {
     "additionalProperties": true,
     "type": "object"
    },
    {
     "type": "null"
    }
   ],
   "default": null,
   "title": "Failure"
  },
  "as_of": {
   "anyOf": [
    {
     "type": "string"
    },
    {
     "type": "null"
    }
   ],
   "default": null,
   "title": "As Of"
  },
  "freshness_state": {
   "default": "unknown",
   "title": "Freshness State",
   "type": "string"
  },
  "proof_id": {
   "default": "",
   "title": "Proof Id",
   "type": "string"
  },
  "receipt": {
   "additionalProperties": true,
   "title": "Receipt",
   "type": "object"
  }
 },
 "title": "MAEnrollmentTrendProofResponse",
 "type": "object"
}

Sources behind it

medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_county
medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_plan
medicare_silver.plan_crosswalks_annual
medicare_silver.monthly_contract_enrollment_summary

tables: medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_county · medicare_silver.enrollment_monthly_plan · medicare_silver.plan_crosswalks_annual · medicare_silver.monthly_contract_enrollment_summary

Known limits

No gaps recorded for this tool. Absence of a recorded gap is not a claim of complete coverage; the answer itself says what it covers.

As of the 2026-09-19 build of the served surface · machine-readable catalog · the live server may run a different version; the schema endpoint above is authoritative for what is deployed.