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Medicare Advantage plan exits 2027 in Erie County, NY
11,097 of the 126,883 Medicare Advantage members in Erie County (8.7%) are in a plan that is not sold in the county for 2027: 11 of the 61 plans sold there in September 2026 end, from the CMS 2027 Landscape and crosswalk. New York: 13.2%; the nation: 10.6%.
Period: plan year 2027 against September 2026 members · Updated 2026-10-20 · Next: CMS January 2027 enrollment (February 2027): where the members landed
- members, Sept 2026
- 126,883
- members, Sept 2026
- must pick for 2027
- 11,097
- must pick for 2027
- share of members
- 8.7%
- share of members
- plans end
- 11 of 61
- plans end
Medicare Advantage members in Erie County, 2015 to 2026
MA enrollment in September each year, with MA penetration (members over Medicare eligibles) at the top of each bar, from the CMS state-county penetration file. Navy: the last two years. 60 plans are listed for the county for 2027 against 70 for 2026.
The plans that end for 2027
Every plan sold in Erie County in September 2026 with members whose plan is not sold there for 2027: how it went (terminated, or its service area reduced so it continues elsewhere), the members the same company offers a new or renumbered plan of the same type, and the members whose company sells nothing in the county next year.
| Plan | Company | Type | Members | Terminated | Service area reduced | Offered a new or renumbered plan | Company gone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior Blue 651 (HMO) H3384-019 | Highmark Health | Regular HMO | 3,133 | 3,133 | 0 | 3,133 | 0 |
| Independent Health's Encompass 65 Red 043 (HMO) H3362-043 | Independent Health Association, Inc. | Regular HMO | 1,798 | 1,798 | 0 | 1,798 | 0 |
| Humanachoice Snp-de H5970-020 (PPO D-SNP) H5970-020 | Humana Inc. | D-SNP PPO | 1,651 | 1,651 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Forever Blue Value (PPO) H5526-016 | Highmark Health | Regular PPO | 1,203 | 1,203 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Humanachoice Giveback H5970-030 (PPO) H5970-030 | Humana Inc. | Regular PPO | 1,086 | 1,086 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Forever Blue 751 (PPO) H5526-004 | Highmark Health | Regular PPO | 974 | 974 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Community Blue Medicare HMO Merit (HMO) H3384-071 | Highmark Health | Regular HMO | 884 | 884 | 0 | 884 | 0 |
| Univera Seniorchoice Core (PPO) H3335-060 | Lifetime Healthcare, Inc. | Regular PPO | 188 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aetna Medicare Partial Dual (HMO D-SNP) H3312-089 | CVS Health Corporation | D-SNP HMO | 150 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wellcare Advantage Simple (PFFS) H2816-038 | Centene Corporation | REGULAR OTHER | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mvp Medicare Wellselect With Part D (PPO) H9615-021 | MVP Health Care, Inc. | Regular PPO | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 plans | 11,097 | 11,097 | 0 | 5,815 | 0 |
Download this table (CSV, CC BY 4.0) · cells under 11 members are suppressed by CMS and count as zero, so every count is a floor.
By company in Erie County
| Company | Members, Sept 2026 | Plans | Plans ending | Must pick | Share of own members | Offered a new or renumbered plan | Company gone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highmark Health | 13,640 | 8 | 4 | 6,194 | 45.4% | 4,017 | 0 |
| Humana Inc. | 4,021 | 5 | 2 | 2,737 | 68.1% | 0 | 0 |
| Independent Health Association, Inc. | 20,913 | 7 | 1 | 1,798 | 8.6% | 1,798 | 0 |
| Lifetime Healthcare, Inc. | 35,134 | 8 | 1 | 188 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 |
| CVS Health Corporation | 20,237 | 6 | 1 | 150 | 0.7% | 0 | 0 |
| Centene Corporation | 6,824 | 12 | 1 | 19 | 0.3% | 0 | 0 |
| MVP Health Care, Inc. | 28 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 39.3% | 0 | 0 |
| UnitedHealth Group, Inc. | 25,553 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Visiting Nurse Service of New York | 484 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 |
| VISITING NURSE ASSOCIATION OF CENTRAL NEW YORK | 49 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 |
Erie County against New York and the nation
| Measure | County | New York | United States |
|---|---|---|---|
| Must pick for 2027, share of members | 8.7% | 13.2% | 10.6% |
| Must pick for 2026 | 52.1% | 10.1% | |
| Must pick for 2025, members | 15,996 of 119,625 | ||
| Must pick for 2026, members | 64,708 of 124,138 | ||
| Must pick for 2027, members | 11,097 of 126,883 |
State and national figures: the New York hub and the national report.
Star Ratings 2027 in Erie County
| Measure | 2027 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Members in contracts rated 4+ stars | 82.8% | 84.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Member-weighted average star | 4.03 | 4.29 | -0.26 |
| Rated contracts with members here | 27 | 27 |
Members by star, 2027: 5.0: 299 · 4.5: 50,865 · 4.0: 77,057 · 3.5: 12,198 · 3.0: 14,475; 1,405 in unrated contracts. Each contract's 2027 overall star (CMS, released 2026-10-08) weighted by its 2026-09 members in the county, individual and group; 2026 by 2025-09 members.
Sources
- CMS Medicare Advantage/Part D Landscape, plan year 2027: landscape_cy2027-landscape-202609-1.zip (CMS, September 2026); CMS plan crosswalk CY2027.
- CMS monthly enrollment by contract, plan and county, 2026-09 (and the two Septembers before, for the series).
- CMS MA state-county penetration file, September of each year (eligibles, enrollment, penetration).
- CMS Star Ratings 2027, released 2026-10-08. Page object written 2026-10-20.
Receipts: athena(table=medicare_semantic.exits_cells_county_2027_v1, block=plans) 042eb472aa7d…; athena(table=medicare_semantic.exits_cells_county_2025_v1, medicare_semantic.exits_cells_county_2026_v1, medicare_semantic.exits_cells_county_2027_v1, block=series) ee9fd56a8632…; athena(table=medicare_semantic.ma_spine_county_market_v20261012b, block=market) e6c1b5ce62c0…; athena(table=medicare_semantic.ma_spine_contract_stars_v20261012b, weights=medicare_semantic.ma_spine_enroll_plan_county_v20261012a, block=stars) c39711c388e0…. Suppressed cells count as zero in every count.
Cite: Vlada Health (2026). Medicare Advantage plan exits 2027 in Erie County, NY. https://www.vladahealth.com/medicare-advantage/ny/erie. Data: CC BY 4.0.
Method
- Population: members of individual Medicare Advantage plans (H and R contracts, plans 001 to 799, special needs plans included; employer group, Cost, MMP and PACE excluded) in the county in September 2026.
- Must pick: the CMS crosswalk names no successor plan sold in the county for 2027; members CMS moves to a successor in the county are not counted.
- Terminated: the plan is gone from every county. Service area reduced: the plan continues elsewhere but not here. Offered a new or renumbered plan: the same company sells, in this county, the same name under a new number or a new plan of the same HMO or PPO and special needs type. Company gone: no plan of any type from that company in the county.
- Stars: each contract's overall star weighted by its September members in the county; unrated contracts counted apart, never as zero stars. Penetration: the CMS file's own eligibles and MA enrollment.
- Suppression: CMS hides cells under 11 members; they count as zero, so every count is a floor and every share is not.
The full method and the national tables: How we counted, and how to check it.
Questions
- How many Medicare Advantage members in Erie County must pick a new plan for 2027?
- 11,097 of 126,883 members (8.7%): their plan is not sold in the county for 2027 according to the CMS crosswalk and Landscape. New York as a whole: 13.2%; the nation: 10.6%.
- Which plan in Erie County ends with the most members?
- Senior Blue 651 (HMO) (H3384-019, Highmark Health): 3,133 members in September 2026, terminated; the company offers them a new or renumbered plan of the same type in the county.
- Which company ended the most plans in Erie County for 2027?
- Highmark Health: 6,194 of its 13,640 members in the county (45.4%), 4 of its 8 plans.
- What share of Erie County's Medicare eligibles are in Medicare Advantage?
- 71.7% in September 2026: 157,105 of 219,009 eligibles, from the CMS state-county penetration file.
- How are Erie County's members rated for 2027?
- 82.8% of members are in contracts rated 4 stars or more for 2027 (84.7% the year before); the member-weighted average star is 4.03 over 27 rated contracts.
- How does 2027 compare with 2026 in Erie County?
- 64,708 members (52.1%) had to pick a new plan for 2026; for 2027 it is 11,097 (8.7%), a change of -53,611 members.
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Use Vlada. In Erie County, New York, which Medicare Advantage plans are not sold for 2027, how many members are in each, and what did 2026 look like? Give me a table with the source file, the data vintage and the response hash.
Behind it: get_county_view (state NY, county Erie) and get_landscape_exits (group_by county).