2027 open enrollment. 3.15M must pick a new plan.

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Vlada / Medicare Advantage / North Carolina

Medicare Advantage plan exits 2027 in North Carolina, by county

34,446 of North Carolina's 1,094,140 Medicare Advantage members (3.1%) are in a plan that is not sold in their county for 2027, measured from the CMS 2027 Landscape and crosswalk against September 2026 enrollment. Nationally the share is 10.6%.

Period: plan year 2027 against September 2026 members · Updated 2026-10-19 · Next: CMS January 2027 enrollment (February 2027): where the members landed

members, Sept 2026
1,094,140
members, Sept 2026
must pick for 2027
34,446
must pick for 2027
share of members
3.1%
share of members
counties
100
counties

Members who must pick a new plan each year, 2016 to 2027

Members of individual Medicare Advantage plans in North Carolina whose plan is not sold in their county the next year, by plan year; the share of all members at the top of each bar. Orange: the last three years.

011k22k34k45k8.2%20163.4%20173.9%20180.7%20190.7%20200.8%20210.1%20220.2%20230.9%20244.5%20253.5%20263.1%2027

Every North Carolina county, 2027

Members in September 2026; those whose plan is not sold in their county for 2027; their share; of those, the members offered a new or renumbered plan by their own company in the county, and the members whose company sells no plan there for 2027. Sorted by members who must pick. Each county links to its own page: the plans that end, the companies, enrollment and penetration since 2015, the Stars.

CountyMembers, Sept 2026Must pick for 2027ShareOffered a new or renumbered planCompany gone
Cabarrus21,4414,89922.8%4,7040
Mecklenburg80,0762,3693.0%2080
Wake69,8822,2863.3%0965
Guilford68,0132,2833.4%1260
Cleveland13,3682,11715.8%2,0300
Forsyth50,3991,6443.3%1090
Johnston19,3991,2336.4%656146
Randolph22,5231,0544.7%150
Cherokee4,86198220.2%9260
Columbus6,99796613.8%260
Rutherford8,73387310.0%29798
Lee6,39385513.4%8550
Montgomery3,54875421.3%7220
Davidson26,5926632.5%320
Alamance23,0656572.8%530
Wilson9,5096276.6%00
Pender6,6956109.1%5980
Rockingham17,3765933.4%00
Iredell21,8015282.4%2320
Buncombe25,4254611.8%90258
Yancey2,44242717.5%045
Union19,3883912.0%510
Brunswick22,1673221.5%2470
Durham21,8893111.4%830
Clay1,61627817.2%2560
Catawba21,3342681.3%290
Cumberland30,4142670.9%1080
Gaston26,9192561.0%800
Burke11,1572131.9%0202
New Hanover18,3162091.1%1650
Henderson13,9931981.4%3498
Pasquotank3,4131935.7%1590
Northampton2,7801896.8%360
Stanly8,0681792.2%1550
Swain1,34917613.0%1760
Gates93817318.4%1730
Rowan19,6311520.8%320
Lincoln11,1461511.4%160
Dare1,6631428.5%00
Bertie2,7151405.2%800
Polk2,3781395.8%1995
Macon4,6691383.0%1170
Graham97113113.5%00
Scotland4,7321272.7%870
Moore12,0051161.0%680
Davie6,8561121.6%00
Camden48611223.0%1120
Nash12,0781110.9%00
Harnett11,5811100.9%570
Currituck1,7341086.2%1080
Robeson17,160990.6%00
Vance6,522991.5%710
McDowell6,708951.4%095
Haywood8,755861.0%320
Greene1,896864.5%140
Duplin5,532721.3%00
Jones1,294705.4%130
Chatham8,020680.8%056
Perquimans1,404684.8%480
Orange8,868650.7%260
Stokes8,250640.8%00
Sampson7,247610.8%340
Alleghany1,603593.7%590
Transylvania4,466551.2%042
Franklin7,783540.7%00
Halifax7,704540.7%00
Washington1,560533.4%170
Alexander5,188521.0%00
Wayne12,059510.4%00
Yadkin6,340490.8%00
Hoke4,759471.0%320
Bladen4,556441.0%170
Beaufort6,410420.7%00
Richmond6,090420.7%250
Pamlico1,423423.0%420
Jackson2,950411.4%220
Mitchell1,989402.0%2713
Caldwell12,416380.3%110
Madison2,807371.3%017
Watauga2,924361.2%00
Warren2,677361.3%240
Ashe3,256341.0%230
Wilkes11,529330.3%330
Edgecombe7,668310.4%00
Craven9,242290.3%00
Surry12,179280.2%00
Martin3,270280.9%280
Hertford2,840281.0%00
Onslow12,159260.2%00
Lenoir6,813260.4%00
Hyde384266.8%00
Granville5,887130.2%130
Person5,307120.2%120
Caswell3,284120.4%120
Pitt15,020110.1%00
Avery1,813110.6%011
Carteret6,44900.0%00
Anson3,09100.0%00
Chowan1,49000.0%00
Tyrrell17500.0%00
North Carolina, 100 counties1,094,14034,4463.1%14,4942,841

Download this table (CSV, CC BY 4.0) · cells under 11 members are suppressed by CMS and count as zero, so every count is a floor.

North Carolina against the nation

MeasureNorth CarolinaUnited States
Must pick a new plan for 202734,4463,153,512
Share of members3.1%10.6%
Share for 20263.5%10.1%

National figures: the Vlada report 3.15 million Medicare Advantage members must pick a new plan for 2027.

Star Ratings 2027, member-weighted

Measure20272026Change
Members in contracts rated 4+ stars89.9%79.4%+10.5 pts
Member-weighted average star4.074.09-0.03
Rated contracts44

Members by star, 2027: 5.0: 3,194 · 4.5: 343,579 · 4.0: 849,879 · 3.5: 91,570 · 3.0: 42,773 · 2.5: 141; 1,644 in unrated contracts. CMS Star Ratings released 2026-10-08, each contract's overall star weighted by its 2026-10 members in North Carolina (individual and group); rating year 2027 pays in 2028.

By company, 2027

CMS parent organizations with members in North Carolina in September 2026: members whose plan is not sold in their county for 2027, as a share of the company's own members; how the plan went (terminated, or its service area reduced so it continues elsewhere but not in their county); of those members, how many the company offers a new or renumbered plan of the same type in the county, and how many are left with no plan from the company there.

CompanyMembersMust pickShare of own membersPlan terminatedService area reducedOffered a new or renumbered planCompany gone
Humana Inc.277,52017,5046.3%4,60712,89714,1930
Health Care Service Corporation31,8196,45020.3%4,6561,79402,043
Risant Health, Inc.22,5393,65416.2%3,654000
CuraCor Solutions Corp.181,3243,0041.7%2,79620800
CVS Health Corporation124,1511,7171.4%01,717251798
UnitedHealth Group, Inc.387,8331,0340.3%1,0043000
Centene Corporation10,7771,0339.6%1,033000
Rifkin Managed Care Holding, LLC5050100.0%500500
Devoted Health, Inc.37,11500.0%0000
Alignment Healthcare USA, LLC15,35800.0%0000
Liberty Healthcare Insurance2,98800.0%0000
Troy Holdings, Inc.1,55700.0%0000
Longevity Health Founders, LLC87600.0%0000
UNICO Services, Inc.23300.0%0000

Sources

  • CMS Medicare Advantage/Part D Landscape, plan year 2027: landscape_cy2027-landscape-202609-1.zip (CMS, September 2026).
  • CMS plan crosswalk, CY2027; CMS monthly enrollment by contract, plan and county, 2026-09.
  • CMS Star Ratings 2027, released 2026-10-08.
  • Page object written 2026-10-19; the series 2016 to 2027 from the locked exits history of the Vlada report (independent audit 2026-10-13).

Receipts: athena(table=medicare_semantic.exits_cells_county_2027_v1, block=counties) bce72deb8c12…; athena(table=medicare_semantic.exits_cells_county_2027_v1, block=companies) 15de170f7bb5…; get_stars_rollup(group_by=state, limit=60) 2c1fa6b01add…; file(path=docs/research/plan-exits-2027/data/audited/by_year_state.csv) b2f25ce9152e…. Suppressed cells (under 11 members) count as zero in every count.

Cite: Vlada Health (2026). Medicare Advantage plan exits 2027 in North Carolina, by county. https://www.vladahealth.com/medicare-advantage/nc. Data: CC BY 4.0.

Method

  • Population: members of individual Medicare Advantage plans (H and R contracts, plans 001 to 799, special needs plans included; employer group, Cost, MMP and PACE excluded) in the county in September 2026.
  • Must pick: the CMS crosswalk names no successor plan sold in the member's county for 2027; members CMS moves to a successor in their county are not counted.
  • Company: CMS's reported parent organization in September 2026; a company's share is over its own members in the state.
  • Stars: each contract's overall star weighted by its members in North Carolina; unrated contracts counted apart, never as zero stars.
  • Suppression: CMS hides cells under 11 members; they count as zero, so every count is a floor and every share is not.

The full method, with the national tables: How we counted, and how to check it.

Questions

How many Medicare Advantage members in North Carolina must pick a new plan for 2027?
34,446 of 1,094,140 members (3.1%): their plan is not sold in their county for 2027 according to the CMS crosswalk and Landscape. Nationally the share is 10.6% (3,153,512 members).
Which North Carolina county has the most members who must pick?
Cabarrus County: 4,899 of 21,441 members (22.8%). 0 of the 100 counties lose 90% or more of their members' plans; 4 lose none.
Which company ended the most plans in North Carolina for 2027?
Humana Inc.: 17,504 of its 277,520 North Carolina members (6.3%) are in a plan it does not sell in their county for 2027.
How did North Carolina's Star Ratings change for 2027?
89.9% of members are in contracts rated 4 stars or more for 2027, against 79.4% the year before; the member-weighted average star is 4.07, from 4.09, over 44 rated contracts.
How does 2027 compare with 2026 in North Carolina?
36,124 members (3.5%) had to pick a new plan for 2026; for 2027 it is 34,446 (3.1%), a change of -1,678 members.

Ask this in Claude or ChatGPT

The free Vlada connector answers it from the same files, with the source and a response hash. Install in one minute.

Use Vlada. Which North Carolina counties have the most Medicare Advantage members who must pick a new plan for 2027? Give me a table with the members in the market, the members who lose their plan and the share, then the source file, the data vintage and the response hash.

Behind it: get_landscape_exits (transition_year 2026, group_by county, state NC) and get_stars_rollup (group_by state).